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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Rejoice when the markets fall

Believe me, I know many folks out there who dance with joy and bow down to the Gods and Goddesses whenever the Sensex goes up, the higher it goes the stronger the intensity of the dance and more fervently the prayers. Wow, that’s great. But, I have done the same thing today – the only difference being is that the markets went sliding downhill- the sensex lost 227.76 points and rested at 20315.32. Hope, Providence will give me more opportunities to redo what I did today. To tell you the truth, I have been going through sleepless nights for the past few months wondering when the markets will crash so that my customers/clients can buy good stocks cheaper than what they are today. But, as they say - Man proposes and God disposes. Nothing can be further from the truth- at least as far as I am concerned!

Come on folks, lets get this straight – a non-stop rise in the index is not something you should celebrate but it is rather frequent rises followed by gradual falls that you should be happy about – after all when the whole world knows that Destination India is one of the most powerful emerging markets in the world which has a proven track record of a vibrant economy backed by world class organizations and world class talent pool waiting on the sidelines to show the world that we Indians are better than the best – then knowing this fact why should you rejoice at all when the markets are rising and rising and you keep on buying and buying as if the Sensex will continue to rise and rise till eternity – guess who would rejoice the most if you did this – obviously the biggies and FII’s and institutional investors because they got in much much earlier than you..

Remember : let me put it most bluntly – the markets want us to eat crow off and on but you should put your foot down. And that’s why I say if the markets crash, please cheer up and thank your stars because God is presenting you with an opportunity to buy a star, buy a gem that will sparkle your life with the colour of money in the years to come. Falling markets make things easier for you.

From now on, before you go into your dream world every night, say this prayer:

Dear God in Hevean
Give the wise folks the wisdom to sell like crazy
And let the markets crash like crazy
So that me and my wife can buy like crazy.

And write it down in letters of gold – if God listens to your prayers [ if at all he listens ] then you will be richer than the richest – because perhaps then you can buy Reliance Capital for say Rs.100/share or SBI for say Rs.500 or a Titan for Rs.200 or a Larsen for Rs.250/share! Yeah, that’s wishful thinking but no harm to wish for such good things. After all, don’t you wish that you get wonderful dreams rather than frightful dreams that can wake you up in cold sweat, in shock and horror in the middle of the night.

To cut a long story short - ceteris paribus, you can find greater value in stocks in a falling market rather than a rising market. And never ever forget something historical about the markets which is gospel truth: whatever rises shall inevitably fall and whatever falls shall inevitably rise.

Moral : To derive maximum value from your hard earned money, invest more whenever the markets fall like crazy.


Kishor S. Khot, [Kishor@hbjcapital.com], Equity Strategist, HBJ Capital Services Pvt Ltd